Spring in the Colour City — just like winter and autumn — is looking to be wet and mild.

Australian Bureau of Meteorology forecasts continuation of the current weather pattern that we have experienced for more than 18-months since the big drought broke in early 2020.

“The NSW Central Tablelands is likely to see a wetter-than-average spring, with the chances of receiving above median spring rainfall greater than 80 per cent across the region.,” Bureau climatologist, Felicity Gamble said.

Climate indicators like the Southern Oscillation Index and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) all point to above-average rain and below average maximum temperatures, Felicity added.

“Our climate is currently under the influence of a negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).”

The IOD is a climate driver that typically enhances rainfall across central and southern Australia and is likely to be the dominant driver of the spring outlook.

“A very weak shift towards La Niña is likely in spring (although an event seems unlikely at this stage) – but this shift may also be contributing to the wet outlook for much of eastern Australia, as well as the negative IOD,” Felicity added.

While we’re all bemoaning the state of our roads, the good news is that the wet spring weather is likely to continue at least until Christmas.

“Our outlook for October–December 2021 indicates wetter-than-average conditions are likely to continue until the end of 2021, with the chances of receiving above median rainfall greater than 75 per cent.”

Summer 2021, she added, could see the end of the current wet run we’ve had that has replenished Orange’s water supply after years of increasingly-onerous water restrictions leading to the 2019 Christmas bushfire period where the Colour City and much of eastern Australia was blanketed with smoke for weeks on end.

“With the both the negative IOD and the weak cooling pattern in the Pacific likely to return to neutral in the summer months, rainfall patterns are likely to shift back to a more neutral outlook,” Felicity said.

Influences (are) likely to come from more localised features such as ocean temperatures around Australian coastlines, and secondary drivers such as the Southern Annular Mode and the Madden-Julian Oscillation.

The forecast weather pattern is the same for most of southern Australia with high rainfall and lower temperatures.

Spring (September to November) rainfall is likely to be above median for the eastern two-thirds of Australia. However, below median rainfall is likely for patchy parts of western WA and western Tasmania.

Maximum temperatures for September to November are likely to be above median for the northern tropics and far south-east Australia. Below median daytime temperatures are more likely for south-east Queensland, extending into northern NSW.

Winter in Orange was about average for both minimum and maximum temperatures, but with rainfall numbers that bring tears of joy to local farmers’ eyes.

While the average for the first eight months of the year for Orange is usually about 550mm, (about 22 inches Imperial), this year, we have enjoyed more than 930mm of rain, or about 37 inches on the old scale, with more than 110mm in August alone.

Orange’s main water supply has been so fully-replenished, that it began overflowing again for the first time in nearly five years.